Giovanni Santostasi
1 min readJan 5, 2020

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No.
Your tests are meaningless. You just found out that BTC has log periodic bubbles that is obvious from inspection.
I’m actually the original author of the reddit post that Burger used as a starting point for his log-log model analysis.
The full model I posted in reddit is a power law plus log periodic bubbles.
Of course the residuals would not be close to zero because the are strong oscillations around the trend.
Just eliminate the outliers and see how the residuals look like. This actually was done by Burger in his article. You miss intuitive understanding of the data. Try to understand what the data means before applying mathematical tests in a senseless manner.

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Giovanni Santostasi
Giovanni Santostasi

Written by Giovanni Santostasi

Physicist, neuroscientist, financial analyst. CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy: https://www.quantonomy.fund/giovanni-santostasi-phd

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