Modelling BTC with Abundance of FOMO, News, Cramer bad calls on BTC, or whatever goes up during bulls

In this model, I use the same approach of @100trillionUSD in his famous article “Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity” https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25.

See attached code.

The same math and step-by-step procedure.

But instead of making the flow go down, I make it go up.

So a model based on abundance instead of scarcity.

But instead of the flow of BTC, it is the flow of FOMO that changes.

I create a quantity Stock to flow of FOMO (Stock to FOMO) and declare from very deep sociological principles that a doubling of FOMO makes my price go up for sure. Wow, it works!!!!

An S2F-like model based on Abundance of bs instead of Scarcity of BTC. It works pretty well in reproducing the periodic behavior of BTC and NGU.

P.S.

The math is exactly the same math of s2f with an increasing flow instead of decreasing but the model itself is nonsense.

This is supposed to be a joke but demonstrates a serious point.

This is about showing that s2f math qualities can model anything. Price goes up, down, sideways, you can use flow going up, down it doesn’t matter. So it is not about scarcity, abundance or anything else besides that s2f can approximate polynomial functions of time (even a falling object, the number of times I leave my desk, and so on). The fact that the jumps in flow are somehow synchronized to the bubbles gives the illusion of some incredible explanatory power (while they are problematic if used to explain falling objects because the jumps have nothing to do with anything).

s2f-like models can do a good job of fitting any polynomial like the distance covered by a falling object. But what is the interpretation of the jumps here?

But as you can see in my bullshit model that I can come up with any quantity that seems to be happening during the bull market and declare that a change in the flow of it makes the price go up. I would say my model is even better than PlanB s2f because it can “predict” the peaks very well and tell us when the bear market starts. Amazing. But it is still a bullshit model.

This all.

Why this is the case will be shown in a following post.